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Top ten defensemen set for their breakout

Every player develops into the NHL differently and brings a different skill set to the table. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t clear trends and peaks when it comes to fantasy production.

Taking the past seven years of all NHL scoring and looking at the output from different age brackets, positions and tiers, we can see where there are steeper inclines to a typical player’s development.

In other words, yes, we can visualize a breakout.

I took the top 72 defensemen in fantasy points from each season between 2015-16 and 2021-22, and combined the output from each age (which is based on their age as of Jan. 31 in the season in question). So, over the course of seven seasons, we have a sample of 504 seasons from defensemen that we can consider to be fantasy relevant.

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The average fantasy output from each age is a relatively flat line. This makes sense, as there are fewer players in each age group as you move to either end of the spectrum. In fact, there is only one 18-year-old that qualified for the dataset at the young end and only one 39-year-old that qualified at the old end. (The 18-year-old was in 2018-19, while the 39-year-old was in 2016-17; Can you name them both? Answers below.)

But while the average output may not yield much information for breakouts, looking at the number of players in each age group and the total fantasy points they produced does give us a curve with which to draw conclusions.

The age that produces the most fantasy points for fantasy-relevant defensemen is the age of 26, with 55 of the 504 player-seasons from the sample combining for 6,958 fantasy points.

Sean Allen

But that’s not where the breakout happens. While 26 is the peak, it’s only a minor uptick from the 51 player-seasons producing 6,648 total fantasy points at age 25.

The breakout increase occurs from age 23…


Source link : https://www.espn.com/fantasy/hockey/story/_/id/34605185/fantasy-hockey-top-ten-defensemen-set-their-breakout-season-miro-heiskanen-zach-werenski

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Publish date : 2022-09-16 20:22:46

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