The trouble with the method I’m using to identify an age bracket during which a player is historically likely to breakout for fantasy production is that it’s relying on the theory that the crowd results can represent the individual.
Saying that forwards at the age of 24 (using their age prior to Jan. 31 of the current season) score more fantasy points than any other age is true. It’s also true to say the largest single increase in production between age brackets is between the ages of 22 and 23, closely followed by the gap between 23 and 24.
These conclusions seem significant until you come back to the individual aspect of what we are trying to achieve here. There could be any number of scenarios that play out for each individual player when it comes to hitting these prime breakout years. Many, such as young superstars like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews can’t “breakout” in the sense that they’ve already been doing elite things for a long time before they come into those key age groups. Others may not experience the steep increase seen by the collective, as they simply get a little bit better each season.
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They key is trying to guess which players follow the collective curve the most: Who is going to make a big leap from 22 to 23 and then another big leap from 23 to 24 as they hit their prime?
Like the defensemen, to get the curve to look at ages, I culled the dataset down to “fantasy relevant” for each individual season from 2015-16 to 2021-22. So we are only including player-seasons that were among the top 144 from each of those seven years. It gives us a pool of 1,008 player-seasons to tally together and analyze.
Also just like the defensemen, the average fantasy points by each age bracket is essentially a flat line. Once again this happens because we are only looking at the best…
Source link : https://www.espn.com/fantasy/hockey/story/_/id/34635607/forward-breakout-tips
Publish date : 2022-09-21 15:59:07
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