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Week 4 College Football Player Props Primer

DonoVan Smith, QB, Texas Tech vs. Texas – Under 273.5 Passing Yards

Having watched Smith pilot the Red Raiders’ offense for the last calendar year, I am ready to definitively state that he is not the long term quarterback for Texas Tech. OC Zach Kittley no doubt is frustrated by his 9% turnover worthy play rate and 3-to-5 TD/INT ratio with a pedestrian 58.2 PFF offensive grade over his two starts. He threw a back-breaking interception last week against NC State and was replaced by four-star understudy Behren Morton for the final two series. Here’s what Texas Tech HC Joey McGuire said about the QB situation when Shough comes back:

McGuire is basically guaranteeing we will see both Smith and Morton against Texas, who ranks 23rd in overall defense according to CFB Winning Edge’s advanced analytics, which is certifiable death to the 273.5 Passing yardage mark. Contested QB situations are manna from heaven from a player props perspective. A slow start will mean a quick hook for Smith which means this is an Under 273.5 Passing Yards play.

Michael Wiley, RB, Arizona vs. @Cal – Under 52.5 Rushing Yards

Arizona ranks 95th on overall rushing performance and 98th in rushing yards, averaging 122 YPG on 3.8 yards per carry in the early going. Just as important is the fact Arizona ranks 100th nationally with 32 rushing attempts per game, as HC Jed Fisch employs an up-tempo, pass oriented offense that ranks 13th in pace of play. Wiley is the passing back for Arizona, securing 9-of-13 targets for 78 yards thus far while his backfield mates have combined for 9 targets on their own. On the rushing side, Wiley leads with 131 yards, thanks in part to him benefitting from some opportune timing on passing down rush attempts, but he ranks third in carries with just 21 over three games. He has received 28% of the backfield’s rush attempts for…


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Author : NBC Sports EDGE

Publish date : 2022-09-23 18:09:54

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