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NFL odds Week 12: Why Buffalo Bills will cover, other best bets

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Because it’s Thanksgiving, we’re all going to be eating a lot of turkey this week. Wouldn’t it be nice to have a side of extra cash to go with the main course?

That’s why I’m giving you all my best bets for NFL Week 12 — wagers that I hope will earn us a few bucks as we kick off this holiday season.

Get ready to dig into my picks for this week’s exciting slate of games (odds via FOX Bet).

Bills at Lions (12:30 p.m. ET Thursday, CBS)

I don’t like starting off the NFL weekend taking a huge, public road favorite, but I lean this way right now. 

Since 2004, the favorite on Thanksgiving is 35-16 against the spread. A favorite getting over 60% of the tickets, normally an easy fade for me, is covering 20 of the last 27 Thanksgiving games. Those are both strong indicators that history and trends are on the Bills side here. 

After a two-game stumble where the Bills lost to the Jets and Vikings, they rebounded to rout the Browns in Detroit. Remember, they played that one in Detroit after the game was moved because of the snow concern in Buffalo. The Bills are still the most efficient team in the NFL, leading in overall DVOA. They are a balanced group that ranks in the top five on offense, defense and special teams. 

The Lions are fun to watch and have won two straight, but they simply aren’t a good team. Their offense ranks 10th in DVOA, but their defense is 25th. They allow a ton of points and yards, and that is why the Bills will cover this game.  

PICK: Bills (-9.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 9.5 points

Bengals at Titans (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS) 

Oh, I can grab the Titans getting points at home with extended rest? Sign me up. 

Mike Vrabel, head coach for Tennessee, is now 9-1 as a head coach when his team gets extended rest. The Titans are a well-coached team and they don’t beat themselves. Their weakness is the passing game, which improved against the Packers with a healthy Ryan Tannehill. He was 20-for-27 with 333…

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Publish date : 2022-11-23 20:11:00

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