Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Week 1 of the NFL saw a majority of games finish Under the total, while Week 2 saw the reverse, with 12 of the 14 games before Monday Night Football going Over their closing line totals. 

This is how the league ebbs and flows with its gambling trends.

But the biggest surprise after two weeks isn’t the totals… It’s the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are 2-0, covering both of their wins with ease. 

Their win total this season was 6.5, and most had them going Under. I even believed they were in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. Now, their win total has jumped to 8.5, so we need to give them credit.

I would still look at the Under even with the fast start. The Bucs have the Eagles, Saints, Lions, Falcons and Bills in their next five games. And If that isn’t enough to give you pause, they also have to play the 49ers and Packers later in the season. I can’t see this team being 9-7. 

But enough with my surprise team of the season, let’s focus on the matchups this weekend and some early wagers I like. 

So, without further ado, let’s jump into my favorite bets for the Week 3 slate.  

Patriots at Jets (1 p.m., CBS)

This is as square of a play as you will find this weekend, but it doesn’t mean it’s the wrong play. 

Both of these offenses stink right now, while both defenses are playing well. Sometimes, football is that simple. 

The Jets have Zach Wilson at quarterback after losing starter Aaron Rodgers on the first drive of the season. Zach Wilson is not good at playing quarterback, and in the four games he’s started against the Patriots, he’s been worse than his career numbers. He’s 0-4 with point totals in those games of 6,13,17 and 3. He’s thrown for only two touchdowns with seven interceptions against this defense. The Jets’ offense is going to struggle this weekend.

On the flip side, we have the Patriots offense against this excellent Jets defense. Mac Jones is just not the guy who can succeed against a superfast…