The Cleveland Browns took a significant hit on Wednesday when it was announced that quarterback Deshaun Watson had suffered a shoulder injury that would require season-ending surgery.
Watson hasn’t been particularly good this season, or since arriving in Cleveland. He’s completed just 61.4% of his passes this year at an average of a mere 6.3 yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns against four interceptions. Among 33 qualified quarterbacks, he ranks 21st in passer rating (84.3), 23rd in ESPN’s QBR (44.7), and 28th in Tru Media’s EPA/play (-0.16).
But as we have seen this season, there is still a significant gap between him and his backups, P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (who is expected to start, more on him below). As noted by Matthew Betz of Fantasy Football Ballers; among the 37 quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks this season, Walker ranks 37th in Pro Football Focus passing grade, 37th in adjusted completion rate (which accounts for drops), 37th in NextGen Stats’ completion percentage over expected, and 36th in EPA/play.
Accordingly, our friends at SportsLine project Cleveland’s chances of winning the AFC North, making the playoffs, winning the AFC, and emerging as Super Bowl champions to drop precipitously (you can check out every team’s chances here).
w/ Watson Healthy10.762.9%32.2%85.2%9.4%3.9%Watson out for Season9.958.2%15.3%63.5%3.5%1.1%Difference-0.8-4.7%-16.9%-21.7%-5.9%-2.8%
I’m perhaps even more skeptical than that, due to the crowded nature of the conference. Right now, the Browns hold the No. 6 seed in the AFC with their 6-3 record. But there are 12 teams in the conference with either 4, 5, or 6 wins. That is a whole lot of contenders for three division crowns (the Chiefs have the AFC West pretty much wrapped up) and three wild card spots.
Cleveland probably has to go at least 4-4 (to finish 10-7) to earn a playoff berth, and may even need to go…
Source link : https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/deshaun-watson-out-for-the-season-what-it-means-for-the-browns-offense-playoff-chances-latest-odds/
Author : Jared Dubin
Publish date : 2023-11-15 16:34:08
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