The Funnel Defense Report: Week 11

New Orleans Saints v Pittsburgh Steelers

Below is a look at the league’s most extreme run funnel and pass funnel defenses through Week 10 — teams being consistently attacked on the ground or through the air regardless of game script.

Having an understanding of which defenses are being bludgeoned via the rush or pass should help us identify matchups that may be better than we think in Week 11.

Pass Funnel Defenses

San Francisco 49ers

Probably you’re tired of me reiterating that teams are all but abandoning the run against the Niners this season. It’s a combination of game script issues and a pass defense that is far more exploitable than the team’s rush defense.

Only the Eagles are a more extreme pass funnel than the Niners on the season and over the past four weeks. Sure, the Jaguars were technically 4 percent under their expected drop back rate against San Francisco in Week 10, but considering they dropped back on 73 percent of their offensive plays, I would count Jacksonville’s approach as pass heavy. The Bengals in Week 8 were 8 percent over their expected drop back rate against the 49ers and Minnesota was at 12 percent in Week 7. You get it.

The 49ers haven’t exactly shut down opposing passing attacks. They’re allowing the 12th highest completion rate over expected and are middle of the pack in EPA allowed per drop back since Week 6.

What it means for Week 11: The Bucs, to their credit, have accepted their fate as a pass-first team mostly because Rachaad White and Tampa’s other backs are so brutally ineffective as rushers. The Bucs seem like they want to win some games this season, so they’ve passed at an almost stunning clip.

Tampa Bay has been at or above its expected drop back rate in seven of their past eight games. From Week 4-8, when the Bucs were forced into back-and-forth game scripts, they were 9 percent over their expected drop back rate. That’s Vikings and Commanders-level pass heaviness.

Target volume should be there for both Mike…

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Author : NBC Sports

Publish date : 2023-11-17 14:20:12

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