NFC South playoff race: Bucs have easy path, but Falcons, Saints still alive

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Greg Auman

NFC South Reporter

Just two weeks are left in the NFL regular season, and the NFC South is still close enough that one game separates first and third place.

Across the league, the average gap between first and third is 3.1 games, and only the AFC South — with a three-team tie at 8-7 — is more closely contested at the top.

Tampa Bay stands alone atop the division at 8-7, with Atlanta and New Orleans still alive at 7-8. There’s a clear hierarchy of just how much each team needs to do to claim a division title:

The Bucs can clinch by winning either of their remaining games, at home Sunday vs. New Orleans or at the Panthers in Week 18.The Saints can clinch by winning their two remaining games and having the Bucs lose at the Panthers in Week 18.The Falcons can clinch by winning their last two games and having the Bucs lose their two remaining games.

“Hey,” you say, “there wasn’t even that much math involved.”

Alas, there will be. There are (gasp) wild-card possibilities for all three teams still in contention, wild as that seems.

There are four games with direct relevance to the final NFC South standings: Saints-Bucs and Falcons-Bears this weekend, then Saints-Falcons and Bucs-Panthers in Week 18. Those four games yield 16 different sets of non-tie outcomes — the Bucs win the division in 12 of those scenarios, and the Falcons and Saints two each.

The NFC South champ is now locked in as the NFC’s No. 4 seed, which means an opening date with the Cowboys or Eagles, the best of the conference’s wild-card teams.

Here’s a look at each team’s situation.

Bucs: Just win one, clinch the division

Tampa Bay’s four-game win streak has given the Bucs control of the division, and a good shot at winning it for the third straight year, a franchise first. The New York Times playoff simulator has them with an 84% chance to make the playoffs. In the Saints and Panthers, they face two teams they’ve already beaten — the first…

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Publish date : 2023-12-27 14:50:29

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