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Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Setting a Super Bowl betting line is an exercise that requires bookmakers to balance full-season power ratings with recent developments.
Once the NFL’s season finale between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs was finalized, multiple Las Vegas sportsbooks opened San Francisco as a 2-point favorite with the total at O/U 47.5.
However, the spread would’ve been different six weeks ago.
One well-respected Vegas oddsmaker sends me his updated power ratings after every single weekend of the season. When San Francisco pummeled the Arizona Cardinals 45-29 on Dec. 17 to move to 11-3, his numbers had the Niners three points better than any other team on a neutral field.
That same weekend in Foxboro, Kansas City eventually put away the three-win New England Patriots after halftime to improve to 9-5. Star quarterback Patrick Mahomes hurled his 12th and 13th interceptions of the season.
The oddsmaker’s sheet read Niners 112, Chiefs 108 the next Monday.
Fast-forward to today and the gap is naturally tighter. Kansas City defeated the Dolphins, Bills and Ravens behind perennial playoff performers in Mahomes and Travis Kelce, not to mention the Chiefs’ best defense in years.
Meanwhile, San Francisco struggled out of the gate at home against Green Bay and Detroit and needed second-half rallies in both games to get here.
“There’s some recency bias with the number for sure,” Westgate SuperBook executive director John Murray told FOX Sports. “Kansas City just won at Buffalo and Baltimore in consecutive weekends, which is about as impressive a two-week stretch as any team could have.
“The 49ers should’ve lost to Green Bay, and they were pretty lucky to win against Detroit, too. This number probably would’ve been closer to San Francisco -3 near the end of the regular season.”
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Source link : https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2024-super-bowl-lviii-odds-how-bookmakers-set-the-lines-for-49ers-chiefs
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Publish date : 2024-02-01 14:17:51
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