As the NFL Draft nears, teams are approaching a lottery of sorts. While every organization’s front office and coaching staff will spend countless hours evaluating prospects, there is an element of unpredictability to every pick. That’s especially true at quarterback.
While we all love an underdog story, the later a QB is drafted, the less likely that athlete will accomplish the dream of becoming a franchise QB.
Sure, there are stories like Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy and, obviously, Tom Brady, being mid- to late-round success stories. But for every Purdy or Brady, you’ll find dozens in the mold of Kevin O’Connell, Rohan Davey or Cardale Jones — players who never materialized as above-average or even average starters in the league and washed out as quickly as they entered pro football.
Since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970, well over 500 different quarterbacks have been selected in the NFL Draft.
The chances of a quarterback making even one All-Pro first team is just 4.6%; a 1:25 shot. However, that chance more than doubles when selecting a signal-caller in the first round (9.4%) and rises to 11.9% if the player is selected in the top five.
Think about that.
If you are taking a quarterback, and you determine there is one available in the top five who fits your criteria, you have turned your chance of landing one of the top passers in the game from a Hail Mary to a long-third down conversion. It’s still tough, but there is a much higher probability.
Not every quarterback is going to be an All-Pro. And failing to achieve that doesn’t mean you aren’t a franchise quarterback. So let’s lower the standard to Pro Bowlers.
(Note: Each number in the chart is per player. A player who has made one Pro Bowl counts the same as one who made five, the same regarding All-Pro players.)
Since 1970, there is about a one-in-five shot that any drafted QB will become a Pro Bowler. This is a much more digestible and positive number that should give fans more hope in their draft picks….
Source link : https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/where-great-nfl-qbs-are-picked-analyzing-54-years-of-history-by-draft-position
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Publish date : 2024-03-01 14:24:13
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