If Patriots trade down, what are the odds they hit on WR and OT?

If Patriots trade down, what are the odds they hit on WR and OT? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Jerod Mayo made it very clear Monday morning: He and the Patriots are open for business when it comes to trading their No. 3 overall draft choice.

They haven’t committed to taking a quarterback at this point, he said, and if someone wants to offer “a bag” for No. 3 overall? He and Eliot Wolf are willing to listen.

There appears to be one team that’s made it very clear they’d like to move up in the Minnesota Vikings, who are proud owners of the No. 11 and 23 overall picks. What, then, would be New England’s odds of hitting on premier positions like receiver and tackle if they were to trade back with Minnesota — potentially picking up a future pick in the process as well?

While championship-level quarterbacks are hard to come by, as my pal Tom E. Curran has pointed out, is it really all that much more likely that a team that trades down nails their picks at other spots?

I went back over 15 NFL Drafts to look at all first-round receivers and tackles found outside the top 10 (since Minnesota has No. 11) to try to get an idea of the odds of hitting on cornerstone pieces at those positions — using average career Approximate Value from Pro Football Reference — if the Patriots move out of No. 3 overall.

The results might be enough to make you hope the Patriots stick and pick a passer in the top three.

Cornerstone wide receiver chances

There were 43 first-round wideouts taken outside the top 10 in the last 15 years. Seven of them (16 percent) provided what I deemed to be “No. 1 receiver” results.

What’s a No. 1, you ask?

Ravens rookie Zay Flowers had a tremendous season in 2023, catching 77 passes for 858 yards and six touchdowns. That yardage total placed him 33rd among NFL wideouts. While his body type probably wouldn’t make him a true No. 1 in the eyes of scouts, he produced as a legitimate go-to pass-catcher and, it could be argued, a low-end “No. 1.”

In my opinion, if…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/patriots-trade-down-odds-hit-192806303.html

Author : NBC Sports Boston

Publish date : 2024-03-25 19:28:06

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