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Rachel Doerrie, ESPNMar 28, 2024, 07:30 AM ET
CloseRachel Doerrie is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
The NHL regular season is nearly done, meaning many teams and their fan bases have started to follow the top prospects in the 2024 draft class more carefully. The San Jose Sharks, Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim Ducks and Columbus Blue Jackets are at the bottom of the league standings, and their fans have been getting excited about Macklin Celebrini for months.
But there is more than Macklin Celebrini in this draft class, and while it might not have the depth of previous years, there is plenty of talent available — and quite a few players expected to have impactful NHL careers.
One area where this draft stands out behind Celebrini is on defense. According to my model, which is explained below, this is the deepest draft on defense since 2012. That draft produced Morgan Rielly, Hampus Lindholm, Matt Dumba and Jacob Trouba in the top 10, and middle-round gems like Jaccob Slavin, Adam Pelech, Colton Parayko and Shayne Gostisbehere.
A draft does not need to have a collection of superstars to be a deep draft. While the 2024 class may lack potential firepower like the 2015 group featuring Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, there are plenty of potential impact players on the back end to be excited about.
How the prospect model works
These rankings are not constructed similarly to the typical scouting lists. This ranking relies very heavily on a model that accounts for a variety of factors that have been historically good predictors of NHL success in the past. The model weights and ranks each player, and that list is adjusted based on viewings, without veering too far out of the guardrails created by the model. Almost no adjustments are made for the first…
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Author : Rachel Doerrie
Publish date : 2024-03-28 11:07:32
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