2024 NFL Draft: The decline of the second-round QB and what it could mean for Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix, more

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The concept of a “second-round” quarterback, based on how we discuss and talk through the position, is one of the most unique in “draft economics.” If a team needs a quarterback and believes that quarterback can be their long-term starter, they should (and usually do) take that quarterback as early as possible in the first round.

And generally, if a team believes a quarterback is best suited to be a backup (and maybe has some traits/abilities to potentially develop into a starter), they should aim to draft them where they usually take “important” backups: Day 3 of the draft, or occasionally late in the third round.

So, based on how important the quarterback position is, the idea of a second- or third-round quarterback, conceptually, doesn’t make a ton of sense. Over the last decade-plus, NFL teams have shifted their view on that very idea. And it could potentially have
real ramifications for players like Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler and more, much like it did for Desmond Ridder and Malik Willis just a few seasons ago. 

A change in team drafting habits

Since the NFL rookie wage scale was put into place in 2011, teams no longer had to factor a player’s rookie contract in their decision-making, or at least as much as they used to. In 2010, the first overall pick (Sam Bradford) made more than 14 times as much as the first pick of the second round. In 2011, it was a little over four times.

And since that time, the financial risk of early first-round picks went substantially down, and the value of trying to find a starting quarterback in round two or later went down with it.

Below is a historical graph of the ratio of second-round picks to first-round picks since 2011:

In 2011, 0.50 means 50% as many second-round QBs were drafted compared to first-round QBs. In 2013, 1.00 means the number of first and second round quarterbacks drafted were equal.

For one, only 12…

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Source link : https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-nfl-draft-the-decline-of-the-second-round-qb-and-what-it-could-mean-for-michael-penix-jr-bo-nix-more/

Author : Eric Galko

Publish date : 2024-04-15 19:16:37

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