What’s the worst that could happen? A fair question to ask when a rookie quarterback is thrust onto an NFL field in his rookie season, especially if most believe he’s playing too soon.
Yet NFL coaches are people just like the rest of us, and society today isn’t too fond of waiting to get their young quarterbacks into a regular-season game. And as we’ve seen with the likes of C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, sometimes rookie passers can experience a best-case scenario in Year 1.
In this article, I’ve gone deep and gotten very specific in my determination of the best- and worst-case scenarios for the 2024 rookie quarterbacks, just like I did last year for Bryce Young, Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Co. As you’ll see below, the figures are based upon these quarterbacks actually getting a chance to play considerable snaps in their first seasons — which, of course, isn’t a guarantee for all those passers drafted early in late April.
For the sake of this piece, we’re going to assume the quarterbacks included all get a sizable opportunity. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are locks for that. Drake Maye, probably. J.J. McCarthy feels like the classic “he won’t need to play until December” rookie who’ll be on the field sooner than later, and Bo Nix, almost by default because of the rest of the Broncos quarterback depth chart, will play the vast majority of his rookie season. From there, I took liberties with how much above or below the averages I feel each quarterback could land in a best- and worst-case scenario.
To begin, I found parameters of expectations for these first-year passers. As a baseline, I used the seasons from the 18 quarterbacks who threw for at least 200 passes as a rookie over the past five seasons. Well actually, it’s 17 passers plus Brock Purdy. I included his gaudy first-year stats in San Francisco for the average of the entire group although he only…
Source link : https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-2024-rookie-qb-outlook-best-and-worst-case-scenarios-for-caleb-williams-other-year-1-signal-callers/
Author : Chris Trapasso
Publish date : 2024-05-20 18:01:54
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