Grading each SEC team’s chance to make College Football Playoff | Toppmeyer

Does ESPN’s Football Power Index know something I don’t?

ESPN recently released its latest FPI, which includes a percentage breakdown for each team’s chance to qualify for the 12-team College Football Playoff.

Among the peculiarities:

ESPN’s FPI awards Ole Miss just a 20.7% chance of making the playoff. That’s strange, considering this is Lane Kiffin’s best roster, and the Rebels enjoy an accommodating schedule.

Oklahoma is listed with a 36.6% chance of making the playoffs despite breaking in a new starting quarterback, entering a new conference and facing one of the nation’s toughest schedules.

Georgia’s chance of playoff qualification (79.1%) leads the nation, but how is it not higher? Excluding the pandemic-shortened season, the Bulldogs have won at least 11 games every season since 2017, so I find it hard to believe that there’s better than a 20% chance they will miss the playoff.

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We deserve a second opinion, so I consulted with my analytics interns, plugged some numbers into the Topp-O-Meter 3000 computer formula and spit out these highly scientific playoff qualification percentage chances for the SEC’s playoff hopefuls:

Georgia

ESPN FPI percentage: 79.1%

Topp percentage: 87.4%

Georgia’s schedule features road games against Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss and a home game against Tennessee. That stiff slate is the only reason my percentage isn’t in the 90s.

Texas

ESPN FPI percentage: 67.8%

Topp percentage: 79.1%

Never mind the conference change, because Texas is built to return to the playoff. However, the Longhorns will play at Michigan in Week 2, and an early loss would narrow the margin for error.

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Alabama

ESPN FPI…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/grading-sec-teams-chance-college-100644153.html

Author : The Tennessean

Publish date : 2024-06-12 10:06:44

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