Nobody would go into the season saying Jared Goff is the best quarterback in the NFL. That doesn’t really matter for the MVP discussion, however.
There is a formula for MVP. The days of Emmitt Smith or Lawrence Taylor winning the award are long, long gone. But it’s not just narrowing it down to quarterbacks or even quarterbacks from playoff teams. You need to figure out the quarterback whose team will have one of the top two records in their conference. If someone came from the future and told you which teams had the top four records in the regular season, you could narrow the MVP race down with remarkable accuracy.
Here is the breakdown of the last 15 NFL MVPs. It’s pretty basic:
• 12 quarterbacks from a No. 1 seed in their conference
• 2 quarterbacks from a No. 2 seed in their conference (Aaron Rodgers in 2015 and Matt Ryan in 2016)
• Adrian Peterson
This isn’t hard to figure out. Based on the last 15 years — Peterson winning MVP over Peyton Manning and his No. 1 seed Denver Broncos seems like it happened eight generations ago by now — 80 percent of the MVPs have been the QB on a top seed in their conference. And you have a slight chance as a No. 2 seed.
With that said, let’s get back to Goff.
Jared Goff’s MVP odds
The NFL MVP odds at BetMGM don’t like Goff all that much. He’s down at 35-to-1. That’s tied for the 15th best odds, along with Anthony Richardson and Kirk Cousins.
Some quarterbacks ahead of Goff on the list like Justin Herbert and Matthew Stafford are very good players but seem very unlikely to be leading a top 2 seed in the AFC or NFC. Therefore, unless you think their teams have a huge season with a great record, recent history tells us that we can cross them off now. They don’t fit the formula.
Goff fits the formula very well. Detroit finished last season in the NFC championship game. They are tied for the second-best win total in the NFC and have the second-best Super Bowl odds in the NFC behind the San Francisco 49ers. Here are the top four…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/based-on-a-simple-look-at-recent-history-jared-goff-might-have-a-decent-shot-at-mvp-192441987.html
Author : Yahoo Sports
Publish date : 2024-07-02 19:24:41
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