Which QB would be drafted No. 1: Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck?

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

If there’s a time to discuss hypotheticals in the NFL odds markets, now is that time. It’s late July, and still six weeks out from a legit regular-season game on which to place some bets on.

So why not put something out there to debate, even if it can’t actually happen?

Here’s the hypothetical: If Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams — all No. 1 overall picks and (arguably) considered the last three generational quarterback prospects — were in the same NFL Draft, which would be favored to go No. 1 overall?

Veteran oddsmaker Rex Beyers has a strong opinion, that may or may not surprise some.

“I don’t think it’s a discussion,” Beyers said. “Luck would’ve been the No. 1 overall pick in every draft since Peyton Manning in 1998.”

Beyers serves up his reasoning behind that opinion, and his thoughts on Rookie of the Year odds for this fun, hypothetical NFL Draft class.

Significant Drop-Off

In 2011, then-Indianapolis Colts quarterback Manning missed the entire season after having neck surgery. The Colts went a league-worst 2-14, securing the No. 1 overall pick in the process.

That allowed Indy to move on from Manning — he was released, then signed with the Denver Broncos — and draft Luck in 2012. 

Luck proceeded to lead the Colts to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth.

Lawrence was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, going to the Jacksonville Jaguars after their dismal 1-15 season. The Jags then went 3-14 in 2021-22 — dead last once again — in Lawrence’s rookie year.

Williams was just taken No. 1 overall by the Chicago Bears in this past draft, so his impact is still to be determined.

“I’d say Luck is No. 1, Lawrence is No. 2 and Williams No. 3,” Beyers said. “And there’s a significant drop-off between No. 1 and No. 2, and a little drop-off between No. 2 and No. 3. Go back and see how bad the Colts were in 2011.”

How big is the drop-off…

Source link : https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/odds-caleb-williams-trevor-lawrence-andrew-luck-nfl-draft-first-overall-pick

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Publish date : 2024-07-25 15:11:32

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