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The New Orleans Saints were in limbo at quarterback for two years following Drew Brees’ retirement after the 2020 season, with five different players starting under center but none performing at a level capable of keeping the team atop the NFC South. New Orleans won four consecutive division titles prior to Brees’ departure but was unable to maintain its stronghold once he called it a career.
The Saints believed they solved their quarterback dilemma when they signed Derek Carr to a four-year, $150 million contract in March 2023. The former Las Vegas Raiders signal-caller’s first year in New Orleans got off to a rocky start, as he battled injuries while the team lost seven of its first 12 games. However, Carr guided the team to four wins over its final five contests, throwing 14 touchdown passes and only two interceptions in that span.
Despite the strong finish, the Saints failed to reach the postseason for the third year in a row. They haven’t gone four consecutive seasons without a playoff appearance since a five-year drought from 2001-05, right before Brees’ arrival, and haven’t gone four straight campaigns without an NFC South title since a five-year dry spell from 2012-16.
Based on its win-total predictions, the SportsLine Projection Model believes Carr will help take New Orleans back to the top of the division. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, is picking Over 7.5 wins (-120) for the Saints. It projects them to record 9.8 victories and has them winning the NFC South 39% of the time in its simulations — the highest percentage among the four division members.
“The win projection is insane, based on the general feeling of the public and major media outlets, but it is completely reasonable when you consider the team had a plus-75 point differential last season, which was…
Source link : https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2024-nfl-futures-saints-win-nfc-south-why-the-sportsline-projection-model-loves-new-orleans/
Author : Scott Erskine
Publish date : 2024-08-29 20:55:28
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