Fantasy hockey 2024: Which forwards are on the rebound?

Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.comSep 17, 2024, 10:00 AM ET

CloseSean Allen is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He was the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hockey Writer of the Year. You can tweet him @seanard.

There are not as many fantasy-relevant players that experience a season-long lull in production to then later return to their usual self later. But there are enough that’s it’s always worth asking the question: Will this player bounce back?

If we use our threshold of averaging at least 1.7 fantasy points per game (FPPG) for their career as a mark of relevance, only 62 different forwards since 2009-10 have had a season in which they dropped at least 0.35 FPPG and then later recovered to their career average or better. Admittedly, some of the forwards have done it more than once, but that’s still a pretty small grouping since 419 unique forwards have finished among the top 100 forwards in those 15 seasons.

If you want to jump ahead to see our top picks, click here.

Quick trivia question: Only five forwards have finished among the top 100 forwards in each and every season starting in 2009-10? Answer at the end.

Dips in production can happen for different reasons.

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In the 2016-17 season, Claude Giroux dipped to 1.6 FPPG, which compares to his current career rate of 1.9. The following season, he was back to 2.3 FPPG and had many fruitful campaigns after that. If we dig into his Wikipedia page, we can see that he had surgery in May 2016 for hip and abdominal injuries and later blamed his down season on lingering effects. I would argue this is an example of an injury-driven bounce back. Ottawa Senators legend Daniel Alfredsson posted 1.4 FPPG in 2010-11 (career 1.7), had back surgery after the season, then posted 1.8 FPPG in 2011-12.

In the 2010-11 season, Ilya Kovalchuk only produced 1.6 FPPG against his career 1.9 rate. He returned…

Source link : https://www.espn.com/fantasy/hockey/story/_/id/41288273/espn-nhl-fantasy-hockey-drafts-preview-bounce-back-forwards-wingers-centers

Author : Sean Allen

Publish date : 2024-09-17 15:34:46

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