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Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.comSep 18, 2024, 09:00 AM ET
CloseSean Allen is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He was the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hockey Writer of the Year. You can tweet him @seanard.
Just like the forwards, there are defenders that will experience a lull in their fantasy careers, only to return once again to prominence. But given the current crop of blue-liners that experience a valley in their fantasy production, the relevant question as we head into the 2024-25 season will be: Is that decline permanent?
Using only players with a career 1.7 fantasy points per game (FPPG) threshold, there have been 41 different defenders in the past 15 seasons that have experienced at least a 0.35 FPPG drop from season to season, only to then later bounce back to above their career average in a subsequent season. A couple of them have done it more than once.
It’s a lesser total than the forwards that have experienced the same dip. Defenders tend to be a little more stable, which makes sense as they typically have more counting stats driving their fantasy points (hits, blocked shots). But just 41 managing to bounce back since 2009-10, at scale, isn’t a lot. In that same 15-season span, 239 unique defenders have finished top-60 among their peers in fantasy points.
To identify trends, let’s have a closer look at some of the successful bounce-back seasons in recent memory.
If you want to jump ahead to see our top picks, click here.
In Justin Faulk’s final season with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2018-19, he posted 1.81 FPPG (against his career mark of 1.77). His first campaign with the St. Louis Blues in 2019-20 saw him plummet to 1.22 FPPG and drop from fantasy rosters. But Faulk returned with a vengeance in 2020-21 with 1.85 FPPG. While we might point to a change in defense partner, Alex Pietrangelo played with him in the down season and Torey Krug in his bounce-back campaign — both quality defenders. His ice time might have been the biggest factor,…
Source link : https://www.espn.com/fantasy/hockey/story/_/id/41290016/espn-nhl-fantasy-hockey-bounce-back-draft-picks-defensemen
Author : Sean Allen
Publish date : 2024-09-18 15:23:03
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