Most people reading this column are casual sports bettors because — let’s be real — if you were a professional, you’d have no need to read my thoughts on anything. While I consider myself a casual bettor, too, there are times in this column when I use terminology that isn’t understood by everybody.
For instance, several readers want to know what I mean when I say, “The market hasn’t caught on yet.” Essentially, I don’t think there’s been a proper adjustment — from bettors or oddsmakers — to a team or situation. To use a real-world example, let’s take a quick look at how the market has adjusted to point totals for college football games this season.
Last year, game totals decreased dramatically as the year progressed due to rule changes affecting the number of plays in games. Those changes have continued into the 2024 season. Check out how the average total for FBS games has changed from week to week.
0+1
53.79
53.01
59.4%
2
53.33
50.38
56.9%
3
51.86
52.26
45.6%
Unders hit 59.4% of the time in Weeks 0 and 1, but when it came to Week 2 games, the average total didn’t drop much. This is likely because the sample size wasn’t large enough to warrant changing the approach yet. The unders crushed again in Week 2 with similar totals, cashing in 56.9% of the time.
But Week 3? The average total dropped from 53.33 points to 51.86, and unders won only 45.6% of the time.
This is only an example. There are all sorts of factors that could’ve played into the results. Matchups play a significant factor as well. Still, it’s an interesting look at how things change during a season, and paying attention to things like this can help you in your decision-making.
Odds via SportsLine consensus
Games of the Week
No. 11 USC at No. 18 Michigan: This certainly feels like a “gotta have…
Source link : https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/the-six-pack-michigan-vs-usc-tennessee-vs-oklahoma-among-top-week-4-college-football-picks/
Author : Tom Fornelli
Publish date : 2024-09-19 15:00:07
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