NFL Week 3 picks, best bets: Bucs roll against Broncos, Texans-Vikings shootout, sneaky two-leg teaser

For the second straight year, we collectively counted out Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. And for the second straight year, they’re making us all look really stupid. Tampa is off to a 2-0 start and Baker is playing some great football. Over his last 10 starts, he leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (22) and is tied with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes for most wins (eight, including the postseason). 

Tampa’s defense is banged up on the back end, but that shouldn’t be an issue against this Broncos offense, which is really struggling to do anything down the field with Bo Nix under center. Denver would love to run the ball, but I don’t think it will be as easy as the stats imply. Tampa’s rush-defense numbers are skewed by playing Jayden Daniels and a couple of long runs by the Lions. The Broncos need to win via the pass if they want to take down the Bucs. 

Nix has attempted 47 passes so far this season, is averaging 5 yards per attempt, has four picks and has yet to throw a touchdown. I’m willing to take that gamble. 

On the offensive side, anyone who thought it might be Dave Canales creating the magic surely feels off base at this point, with the Panthers limping out to 13 total points and benching Bryce Young for Andy Dalton. New OC Liam Cohen has moved Chris Godwin to the slot more often and he, along with Jaleel McLaughlin, could eat in this matchup with Patrick Surtain II likely shadowing Mike Evans. This is a sneaky Rachaad White spot as well, with Kenneth Walker III and the Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren combo both having reasonable success against Denver’s run defense. 

If the Bucs get a lead, they’re going to pound the ball and Todd Bowles will blitz the hell out of Nix while he tries to mount a comeback. The Bucs have one cruise-control win at home so far this season against a rookie quarterback and a questionable offense. 

Sign me up for another.

Pick: Buccaneers (-6.5)

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Author : Will Brinson

Publish date : 2024-09-19 15:45:45

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