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Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Power ratings drive betting lines from open to close in Las Vegas.
During NFL season, oddsmakers use their ratings to create numbers, bookmakers shade those numbers and post their lines on Sunday, then professional bettors use their numbers throughout the week to find edges and make bets.
It’s an ecosystem that rinses and repeats for months. And it’s way more dynamic art than exact science. When the league’s highest-rated teams hit the highway to take on a playoff contender, you tend to get smaller spreads that usually come with polarizing opinions.
That’s exactly the case for Sunday’s big AFC showdown between Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills and C.J. Stroud’s Houston Texans. Buffalo opened -1 and the game is now a pick ‘em.
“I know a group that played Houston +1, and I’ve also seen Buffalo taken back at +1,” professional bettor Adam Chernoff told FOX Sports. “We know [PK] in the NFL means nothing. So the fact that there’s disagreement around the 1 on each side, it tells you all you need to know about this game.”
Barring injury news, it’s difficult to envision the betting line getting too rich on either side. And if you think professionals are putting a bunch of stock in Buffalo’s 35-10 blowout loss at the Baltimore Ravens, think again.
“Buffalo getting beat up by Baltimore is a one-of-one unique matchup that made the Bills look like a team they’re absolutely not,” Chernoff said. “The Bills have injuries up and down the spine of their defense and the Ravens are as well-equipped to take advantage of that as any team in the league.
“Houston is not going to beat Buffalo the same way Baltimore did. The Bills’ cornerbacks have been great all season, and they’re overperforming. They look fantastic. They’re [playing better] than we could’ve ever expected. They match up fairly well against the Texans’ wide receivers.
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Publish date : 2024-10-03 18:02:40
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