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A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
Diontae Johnson’s 13 catches are a lie
Johnson led all wide receivers in expected fantasy points during his first start with Andy Dalton. He saw a whopping 37.8% target share after seeing 21.8% with Bryce Young, who was clearly holding this Dave Canales offense back. Johnson also saw a 44.8% first-read target rate and a 10.2 aDOT while finishing with a career-high 122 receiving yards — his first 100-yard game since Week 13, 2021. He nearly had two more touchdowns Sunday and is tied for the league lead in end-zone targets.
Dalton provided 29 catchable targets in Week 3 after Young totaled 38 over the first two games of the season. Johnson is an elite separator and will see even more targets with Adam Thielen on IR. Throw away Johnson’s stats with Young (and with Kenny Pickett for that matter), as his fantasy value dramatically improved with Carolina’s quarterback switch.
Johnson has historically seen a big increase in production when his QB isn’t pressured, so the Bengals look like a good matchup this week.
Rome Odunze’s 8.8 fantasy points per game are a lie
Volume helped Odunze’s breakout game last week, and Keenan Allen is expected to return in Week 4. Still, Odunze clearly has potential to continue to put up bigger fantasy production. He looked like Chicago’s No. 1 WR last week, when he ran 98% of the routes and saw 49% of the air yards. He led the league in air yards and could’ve had an even bigger game had Caleb Williams not missed him multiple times open downfield.
Williams otherwise showed real improvement last week, and the Bears are getting just 3.0 YPC on the season despite facing the Colts last week. Chicago may be forced to throw more than they planned to with their rookie QB. Odunze’s slow…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/the-fantasy-football-numbers-do-lie-expect-more-good-times-from-diontae-johnson-in-week-4-144827793.html
Author : Yahoo Sports
Publish date : 2024-09-26 14:48:27
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